Abstract:Temporal knowledge graph reasoning aims to fill in missing links or facts in knowledge graphs, where each fact is associated with a specific timestamp. The dynamic variational framework based on variational autoencoder is particularly effective for this task. By jointly modeling entities and relations using Gaussian distributions, this method not only offers high interpretability but also solves complex probability distribution problems. However, traditional variational autoencoder-based methods often suffer from overfitting during training, which limits their ability to accurately capture the semantic evolution of entities over time. To address this challenge, this study proposes a new temporal knowledge graph reasoning model based on a diffusion probability distribution approach. Specifically, the model uses a bi-directional iterative process to divide the entity semantic modeling process into multiple sub-modules. Each sub-module uses a forward noisy transformation and a backward Gaussian sampling to model a small-scale evolution process of entity semantics. Compared with the variational autoencoder-based method, this study can obtain more accurate modeling by learning the dynamic representation of entity semantics in the metric space over time through the joint modeling of multiple submodules. Compared with the variational autoencoder-based method, the model improves by 4.18% and 1.87% on the Yago11k dataset and Wikidata12k dataset for evaluating the MRR of the indicator and by 1.63% and 2.48% on the ICEWS14 and ICEWS05-15 datasets, respectively.