Learning Causal Relationship from Time Series Based on Bayesian Network
Author:
Affiliation:

Clc Number:

TP181

Fund Project:

National Social Science Foundation of China (18BTJ020)

  • Article
  • |
  • Figures
  • |
  • Metrics
  • |
  • Reference
  • |
  • Related
  • |
  • Cited by
  • |
  • Materials
  • |
  • Comments
    Abstract:

    Bayesian network is a powerful tool for studying the causal relationship between variables. Causal learning, based on Bayesian network, consists of two parts:structure learning and parameter learning, while structural learning is the core of causal learning. At present, Bayesian network is mainly used to discover the causality in non-time series data (non-time series causality) and what is learned from the data is the causal relationship between general variables. In this study, the causality of time series is learned by time series preconditioning, time series variable sorting, construction of transformation data set, local greedy search-scoring, and so on. Combining the time series preconditioning including segmentation, the structure learning of causal relationship for time series segments, the construction of causality structure data set, the variable sorting of causal relationship, local greedy search-scoring, maximum likelihood parameter estimation, etc., meta causal relationship (used to study the randomness of causal relationship) is established. Thus, two levels of causality learning can be realized, and the foundation is laid for further quantitative causal analysis. Experiments and analyses are carried out by using simulation, UCI, and finance time series, the results verify the validity, reliability, and practicability of learning causal relationship and Meta causality based on Bayesian network.

    Reference
    Related
    Cited by
Get Citation

王双成,郑飞,张立.基于贝叶斯网络的时间序列因果关系学习.软件学报,2021,32(10):3068-3084

Copy
Share
Article Metrics
  • Abstract:
  • PDF:
  • HTML:
  • Cited by:
History
  • Received:October 23,2018
  • Revised:November 06,2019
  • Adopted:
  • Online: January 15,2021
  • Published: October 06,2021
You are the firstVisitors
Copyright: Institute of Software, Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing ICP No. 05046678-4
Address:4# South Fourth Street, Zhong Guan Cun, Beijing 100190,Postal Code:100190
Phone:010-62562563 Fax:010-62562533 Email:jos@iscas.ac.cn
Technical Support:Beijing Qinyun Technology Development Co., Ltd.

Beijing Public Network Security No. 11040202500063